| by Jonathan Kuttab It is usually very difficult and unwise to make predictions regarding Palestine/Israel, as there are so many variables and surprises involved, and so much history is packed into very short periods of time. Yet looking ahead and judging by past experiences, it is quite possible to predict some very dire events in the next two or so months leading up to the Israeli elections and the nerve-wracking process of coalition building that follows. Historically, this period in Israeli politics (just before elections) has often been distinguished by rabid rhetoric and actions. Israeli governments and politicians abandon all caution and concern about public image and international reputation to concentrate on the Jewish Israeli electorate (expressing themselves only in Hebrew) and appeal to the lowest common denominator to garner Jewish votes. When addressing the West in English, Israeli politicians attempt to sound reasonable, moderate and peace loving. In talking to their own people, however, they openly present views that are more and more fascist, racist and unhinged to gain more votes. The current electoral cycle has proven to be no exception. Polls show that the overwhelming majority of Jewish Israelis support Netanyahu’s actions in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Polls indicated that about 95% believe he is using the right amount of violence in Gaza. Those who oppose him do so for entirely different reasons. I fear we are in for a very difficult time in the next few months, as indicated by the following: Israeli national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir recently declared, “I think targeted assassinations should be carried out in Gaza, taking down 30 to 40 every night . . . Not just those who pose an immediate threat.” To which he added, “There are people there who are not worthy of life. They shouldn’t live. They’re not even people.” All this during a so-called ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. In addition, opposition politicians consistently make genocidal pronouncements, proclaiming that if elected they would be less restrained than the current government has been. They do not call for withdrawals from Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, or for a more conciliatory policy towards Palestinians or Iran. No political candidates (except for the Arab parties) are calling for a Palestinian State, the resumption of talks with the Palestinians, the lifting of the siege on Gaza, or withdrawal from Lebanese territories. The issues that separate them from Netanyahu lay elsewhere. Issues of “Judicial Reform” which are sometimes discussed in the context of the elections, as they did during the massive street demonstrations of 2023, have little to do with peace, equality, or justice for Palestinians, but for the distribution of power among Jewish Israelis. This was made clear in the fact that even Palestinian flags were not allowed in such demonstrations. Discussions about allowing Israeli Arabs to participate in the complex coalition-building process are laced with profoundly racist language. Accusations that the other side would need or rely on Arab votes (even from outside the government) are matched by vociferous insistence that Arabs be kept out of any ruling coalition. Netanyahu allowed Mansour’s Islamic Party into his coalition to achieve the necessary 61 votes (out of 120) and the “moderate parties” never forgave him, insisting that their ruling coalition will be “strictly Zionist” (meaning no Arabs allowed!). Previously, Netanyahu himself had warned of Arabs “coming in droves” to vote in the elections, before switching to allow the Islamic Party to join his coalition with a very minor role. The rapid increase in Jewish settler attacks and the tolerance for and even participation by the army in such illegal actions has been guided clearly by electoral considerations. It is an effort to show that the government is supportive of the extremists and is not using the army and other state organs to restrain the criminal behaviour of the settlers, while still pretending to be a proper government governed by the rule of law. This is illustrated in the attacks on the village of Qusra near Nablus, where settlers actively tried to take over houses in that village and laid siege to three houses, cutting off their water and electricity and refusing to allow supplies in. When residents of one of the houses, owned in-fact by US citizens, contacted the Israeli army and the US embassy, the settlers called in reinforcements and hundreds of them fought off the army when it did show up. When the US Ambassador complained, calling the settlers Jewish terrorists, the Army sent in a whole battalion to remove the settlers and provide supplies to the besieged Palestinians. But Bezalel Smotrich intervened, ordering the army to step down and insisting that only the Israeli civilian police force is authorized to handle illegal Jewish settler actions.The job of the army is simply to defend them. As of this writing, no settler has been arrested and the settlers have been surrounding the homes for over a week. They are dismantling the walls of the houses and trying to burn the Palestinians within them. The police are not willing to remove the settlers. There was a major campaign recently to prohibit Arab doctors and nurses from speaking Arabic while treating wounded soldiers and their families, since “hearing Arabic” is traumatic for them and triggers anxiety and fear. This is particularly alarming since about 40% of the doctors and nursing staff in Israeli hospitals are Palestinian Arab citizens of Israel, and there have been no complaints that they fail in their duties or allow political considerations to influence their treatment of wounded soldiers coming from Gaza and Lebanon. The real issue for those opposed to Netanyahu appears to be that he was too lenient and helped finance Hamas before October 7. They want to see a transparent investigation in order to hold him accountable for his “negligent performance,” NOT because he orchestrated the subsequent genocidal onslaught of Gaza. By contrast, he tries to prove that he can better withstand both international and US pressures to treat the Palestinians differently. While many in the United States are eagerly anticipating an electoral defeat for Netanyahu, Palestinians are very wary of his opponents and do not expect his successors, if he fails, to be significantly better. |
