Abdullah’s new position may force Israel, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. as well to recognize Jordan’s authority when it comes to the Palestinians. The Jordanian king has a belly full of grudges against Israel, and particularly against Netanyahu, as ties between them suffer from severe frost
Haaretz | Zvi Bar’el | Oct 2, 2023
Jordanian King Abdullah couldn’t have been clearer when he spoke about the normalization process cooking between Israel and Saudi Arabia: “This belief, by some in the region, that you can parachute over Palestine, deal with the Arabs and work your way back – that does not work.”
“And even those countries that have Abraham Accords with Israel have difficulty moving publicly on those issues when Israelis and Palestinians are dying,” he added. “So unless we solve this problem, there will never be a true peace.”
Speaking at the Al-Monitor/Semafor Middle East Global Summit last month, which took place on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, he said, “There are two elephants in the room” – one is the younger generation of Palestinian leaders, whose identity and goals are not known, and the second is “where is Israel going? How can we have an understanding of a political horizon? Is it a one-state solution that you want? Is it a two-state solution? And I’m sure your state solution is different than mine.”
His words weren’t only directed at Israel; they also reverberated in Saudi Arabia, where according to recent reports the government is willing to be “flexible” regarding the so-called Palestinian conditions it will demand prior to normalization with Israel. This is parachuting over the Palestinian problem that the king means, and the trap that he’s also warning the Saudis about.
Abdullah has a belly full of grudges against Israel, and particularly against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The ties between them suffer from severe frost, with those close to Abdullah speaking of “promises unkept and new promises meant to mollify the king.”
“However,” a senior Jordanian source adds, “we have already learned that there is no one to trust on the Israeli side except for the Israeli intelligence personnel, who efficiently maintain the ties between the two countries.”
Jordanian anxiety regarding Israeli normalization with Saudi Arabia stems from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s aim to style himself the custodian of all holy places, and not just the custodian of the two holy places located within his borders, as his official title.
Will Israel give Saudi Arabia an official status at the Temple Mount compound, known as Haram a-Sharif, and push out Jordan, which received custodianship over the compound in its own peace agreement with Israel? Israeli sources claim that the question of the holy places is “off limits” in negotiations with Riyadh.
“Israel will continue to abide by its commitments to Jordan, as will the United States,” a Foreign Ministry source told Haaretz. But these promises are not being made publicly. There was no Israeli or American announcement on the matter, and the fear in Jordan is that the commitment may fade amid excitement over the rush toward normalization.
The subject actually came up at a meeting in Egypt about a month ago, attended by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi and Abdullah, to discuss “common interests and coordination ahead of the normalization.” From past bitter experience, Abdullah fears a repeat of the discussions held ahead of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s “deal of the century,” which saw Jordan on the sidelines and not as an active participant.
Now it seems that Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States are again “parachuting” over Jordan, like the move, which may greatly impact its position vis-à-vis the Palestinians, has nothing to do with it.
Against Abdullah’s official position, which adheres to the two-state solution, even if he realizes that it’s not realistic, and in light of Saudi Arabia’s elastic position and the nature of the Israeli government, there are also other voices discussing the best strategy for Jordan.
A report published in August by the Jordanian think tank Institute for Policy and Society offers three options. The first: Leave things as they are, meaning continue to cling to the two-state solution even if only decoratively, thus adopting the American position, which does not truly believe in the feasibility of this option.
The second: Prepare for the “one-state” solution, which for Jordan means abandoning its traditional policy, and in practice turning the Palestinian problem into an Israeli problem – renouncing any Jordanian responsibility for the fate of the Palestinians.
The third option is going in the other direction: Not renouncing responsibility or clinging to the illusion of two states, but intervening in Palestinian politics to build a consensual leadership, to include all Palestinian factions, meaning Hamas as well, to ensure the ties between Jordan and the Palestinians, and restore Jordan’s position as the Palestinians’ sponsor.
Abdullah has yet to adopt the conclusions of the study, but in New York he said explicitly: “We Jordanians, Arabs, Israelis, Americans do not know who the younger generation of Palestinians are. And this is very, very important for us to be able to reach out to, to these young voices.”
This is a new and fascinating position, which, if accepted by the Palestinians, may force Israel, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Abraham Accords signatories, extant and future, to recognize Jordan’s authority and status.
By so doing, it will lead not only to Jordanian involvement in all diplomatic efforts, but also to establishing Amman as a managing entity for events in the territories, although not a controlling one, to neutralize the Saudi ambitions, and perhaps to curb those of Israel as well.