| by Jonathan Kuttab The New Year has brought with it a new paradigm, which is as frightening as it is clear: the notion that the war on Gaza is more than just an “operation,” even an expansive one which can transform the region for a long time to come, has morphed into a new “normal” whereby the world accepts ongoing humanitarian tragedy and war crimes as an established norm. There may be fluctuations in the amount of humanitarian aid allowed in or the risk of a wider regional conflagration, but the new “stable norm” will include genocide and ongoing horrors as fixed features. A spokesperson for the Israeli Army recently announced that the actions of the army are continuing as planned, and that it would take a long time, definitely several months, to finish the tasks given to them. As, in his words, these tasks are not easy to achieve, the army will “not be held to a stopwatch” and will continue until the mission is fulfilled. Gallant, the Israeli Defense Minister, was more expansive. The task, he said, will take years!! Another army general predicted with confidence that the operations will continue “throughout 2024.” The announced withdrawal of several ground troop battalions apparently opens the way for a long-term continuation of hostilities, or even an intensification of aerial bombardment. Furthermore, Netanyahu recently indicated that it is intolerable that Hezbollah is on the borders of Israel and that the population of Northern Israel are now internal refugees who cannot return to their homes until Hezbollah is removed from the border and pushed north beyond the Litani river. He said that if they do not leave through diplomatic pressure, the IDF will certainly remove them and this would endanger the entire state of Lebanon. He even threatened to turn Lebanon and Beirut into “Khan Younis and Gaza.” Another official told the Wall Street Journal, that Israel will “cut/paste” its Gaza actions to Beirut. Tens of thousands of Lebanese have already fled the border regions as well in response to Israeli bombardment and fears of a larger conflagration. Calls for the long–term military reoccupation of Southern Lebanon have also been heard from right-wing lawmakers. It is no secret that Netanyahu is not eager for the war to end, as he has been postponing the necessary political reckoning until the war is over. With Biden having given his blessing and a green light for Israel to do whatever is needed, with no timeline, no real restrictions, and an ongoing umbrella of legitimization and diplomatic cover, I fear the horrors and atrocities in Palestine may be with us for some time to come. A second major concern is that there are those in power in Israel who view this as an historic opportunity to rid Palestine of millions of people by means of “voluntary transfer,” totally divorced from Hamas or any military concerns. This transfer (already underway within the Gaza Strip) is obviously not voluntary and constitutes a war crime, though it has clearly been a part of the Zionist conflict with Palestinians from the very origins of the Zionist movement. We hear the news today that Netanyahu has discussed with his war cabinet different options for encouraging a “voluntary transfer” of Palestinians from Gaza. The problem, he said, was finding countries to accept a “voluntary departure” of Gazans, but that discussions were underway with multiple countries. He has already asked for studies to show how he might “thin out” the population as much as possible. Minister Smotrich has already indicated that the population of Gaza needs to be capped at 100-200,000 persons and no more. With an open timeline, this becomes more and more of a risk. Meanwhile, the army is systematically destroying all structures it can both in the northern part of Gaza, which Israel has hinted will be needed “as a buffer zone” but also in the southern half. The idea is to make Gaza so dreadful, where the basic physical and survival needs of the population are doled out in a calibrated fashion to keep the population impoverished and vulnerable, until the people of the Gaza Strip eventually beg to leave Palestine. It may well turn out that Israel will offer “voluntary transfer” as a “humanitarian solution” for Gazans who can no longer live safely in the area, lacking water, electricity, infrastructure, an economy, or even buildings to shelter in. In this bleak and horrifying situation, there may be at least one bright spot. The International Court of Justice has agreed to a prompt hearing on a complaint filed by South Africa, officially accusing Israel of Genocide in Gaza and requesting provisional measures to protect Palestinians from “imminent and irreparable harm” resulting from Israeli actions in violation of the Genocide Convention. The fact that there is a serious legal examination of Israel’s genocidal activities in Gaza is an important development about which I plan to write about soon. Meanwhile, any brakes placed on the unimpeded violation of international law are definitely welcome. |